Bubble Watch

EDIT: This was edited after 3/3’s action, due to changes and corrections of previous mistakes. This post is also posted as a page at the top of this blog. Keep checking there for the continually updated version of this post all the way to Selection Sunday. I’ve also decided that I’ll post daily Bubble Watch updates nightly, recapping and previewing the next day’s action around Bubble Land.

-There are 65 overall bids – 31 automatic/34 at-large

-Mid-major conferences with definite/realistic multiple bid possibilities (* are locks)

  • Atlantic 10 – *Xavier, Dayton
  • WCC – *Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
  • MWC – *Utah, BYU, San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV

-Mid-majors that are possibilities even if they don’t win their conference tournaments (* are locks)

  • *Memphis (C-USA)
  • *Butler (Horizon)
  • Utah State (WAC)
  • Creighton (MVC)
  • Siena (MAAC)
  • Davidson (SoCon)

-Big 6 members that are lock city, regardless of what happens the rest of the way

  • ACC (5) – North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State
  • Big East (7) – Pittsburgh, Louisville, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
  • Big Ten (4) – Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin
  • Big 12 (3) – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
  • Pac-10 (3) – Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
  • SEC (1) – LSU

With the locks listed above and the definite 16 mid-major conferences that were not mentioned, 45 bids are absolutely, positively untouchable. Above, 17 of the 34 at-larges are reserved by teams from the Big 6. Hopefully no surprises occur in the SEC, CUSA, Horizon, A10, WCC, and MWC tournaments. That would leave a maxium of 17 bids remaining that PSU could be eligible for (of course, assuming the teams listed above win the rest of the Big 6 conference tourneys as well).

-These are teams that, barring catastrophe, are just waiting for the chance to make it official:

  • Texas
  • California
  • Tennessee
  • Dayton
  • BYU
  • Ohio State
  • Boston College
  • Oklahoma State

So, assuming locks and the mid-major bubbles listed above win their conference tourneys, there are a maximum of 10 bids remaining in my opinion for the remaining schools below, including us (used Lunardi’s bracketology seeds to semi-order them):

Team Record RPI vs 50 vs 100 SOS Remaining
*S Carolina 20-7(9-5) 43 1-4 6-5 83 TN, @ UGA
*Va Tech 17-11(7-10) 59 4-7 4-8 37 UNC, @ FSU
*Kentucky 19-10(8-6) 67 4-6 6-8 64 UGA, @ FLA
*Davidson 24-6(18-2) 68 1-4 1-4 165
*Creighton 25-6(14-4) 38 1-0 10-4 105
*Utah St 25-4(13-2) 32 1-1 5-4 131 SJ St
*Siena 23-7(16-2) 29 0-4 5-5 72
*Arizona 18-11(8-8) 47 5-7 9-10 33 Cal, Stan
*Providence 18-11(10-7) 69 2-7 5-11 48 @ Nova
*Penn State 20-9(9-7) 66 5-8 6-9 90 Ill, @ IA
Florida 21-8(8-6) 50 2-6 5-7 91 @ MSU, KY
Minnesota 20-8(8-8) 39 4-6 7-8 46 UW, UM
Michigan 17-12(8-9) 48 5-9 9-11 9 @ MN
San Diego St 17-8(9-5) 46 1-5 4-8 67 CSU, UNLV
Texas A&M 20-8(7-7) 34 4-5 7-8 39 @ CU, Mizzou
St. Mary’s 22-5(10-4) 53 2-2 3-3 167
Miami FL 16-10(6-8) 44 4-7 6-9 12 @ GT, NC St
Maryland 18-11(7-8) 57 4-10 7-19 20 @ UVA
UNLV 20-8(8-6) 51 5-3 9-6 78 AF, @ SD ST
New Mexico 20-10(11-4) 63 3-4 6-7 81 @ WY

(* were included in Lunardi’s most recent field)

-Teams that are going to need improbable runs in their Conference Tourneys to get back in the picture:

  • Kansas State
  • UAB
  • Temple
  • Rhode Island
  • USC
  • Notre Dame
  • Cincinnati

-In Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology, only Creighton (of the mid majors listed in the table) got in as an at-large.

*DISCLAIMER: These are just my opinions and they could all be completely wrong as I am not on the committee.

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