The PSU Bubble Watch

Alright, it’s getting ridiculous. The bubble watching going around the country is driving me mad. Here is what I know:

  • Losing to Iowa is not going to keep us out. The OOC schedule will keep us out, if indeed that happens. Be sure to read DJones today.
  • All Big Ten season long after knowing the OOC resume, it’s pretty much been a conclusion by everyone that 11-7 is what PSU needed to reach to have a legitimate case for the tournament. That didn’t happen. But luckily for PSU, their 10-8 BT record is probably the best 10-8 they could’ve accumulated (solid road wins, beating the top 3 teams in the conference).  Therefore, they still have a solid shot with the 3-1 vs top 25 stat and the weak bubble season (that keeps getting weaker).

  • No one knows shit. 1-1 in the Big Ten tournament guarantees nothing.  We got the worst draw I thought was possible – the 6th seed against Indiana, who offers us nothing.  First off, it’s just another strenuous game for the players’ nursing bodies. Second, if we lose, that’s all she wrote. Thirdly, if we win in a close game (which I’m expecting), the national perception from the Big Ten haters will be – ‘PSU doesn’t deserve to be in the Dance if they can just barely beat IU’. I don’t think it’ll have an impact on the committee’s decision, but it’s just going to drive me more nuts. This game’s your typical no win situation.
  • The question right now is – has Penn State done enough? The answer to this question depends on what goes on with a lot of other bubble teams. Beating IU does nothing but avoid the resume killer. If we beat IU and lose to Purdue, we’ll most likely be one of those teams with the camera in our team’s room following our reaction on Selection Sunday. We’ll be squarely on the bubble, and we’ll be depending on other teams to suck it up to get in. Now if we win 2 BTT games, I think we’re a lock, but I still can’t guarantee that because it just all has to play out.  Too many things have to go our way.

So here’s my suggestion to all PSU fans. Just sit back, enjoy watching some intense basketball, and let the whole thing playout. If you want a source for where we stand on the bubble, go to Jerry Palm. He actually projects the field for CBS and takes into account what he thinks will happen this week. He finally included us this season after we beat Illinois on Thursday. He’s kept us in after the Iowa loss. So my guess is he probably still thinks the Bubble will be weak enough for us to sneak in. Lunardi’s not bad, but he’s just playing to the TV audience and gives us what would most likely happen if the season ended today. Palm gives us an insightful projection that takes into account the most probable situation for what unfolds this week. FWIW, he nailed all 65 teams last year, and his site is well worth the 25 dollar subscription.

I’ll try to give my best opinions and scenarios that will favor PSU with my mini Bubble Watch. So if you want to know who to root for, you can check here.  I’ll leave you with good news.  Cincinnati and Georgetown lost in the first round of the BE tourney today so they are gone.


5 Responses to The PSU Bubble Watch

  1. Anonymous says:

    indiana will be enough. especially if minnesota or michigan loses. go hawkeyes and wildcats!

  2. Anonymous says:

    i really hope we get in. beating purdue will be tough if we beat indiana. i wonder what penn state’s chances are with 1 win in the BTT.

  3. crispinandcream says:

    If the Butlers aren’t going to win their conference tourneys, beating Purdue will be a must.

  4. Anonymous says:

    well great job butler. another at-large spot stolen away from penn state.

  5. Andrew says:

    Nice blog; I enjoy it.

    As a disinterested third party (from another BT school) I think DeChellis is to be commended. No bad losses this season (you guys were gassed at Iowa and couldn’t hold on, so that doesn’t count) and some strong conference wins. Why he chose such a patsy OOC schedule is mystifying for a coach who was trying to get into the tourney. At least the two losses there were to credible teams on the edge of Pomeroy’s Top 50.

    Face it, however. You really needed one of the Iowa or tOSU games to be secure. At this point you are where you are because of the OOC scheudle and failure to win another game in-conference. So please, do us all a favor: take out Purdue. We know you can do it.

    PSU had a strong conference showing. I really hope you get in. As long as Purdue doesn’t blow you out you should be safe. Unless a couple other mid-majors beyond CSU screw you.

    Congrats on a strong season.

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