EDIT: Get yourself some headbands

..and be sure to put on the deodorant. We’re sweating it out all day.

Here’s what the NCAA at-large picture is looking like.

Conference Champs

  • ACC – Duke
  • Big East – Louisville
  • Big 12 – Missouri
  • Big Ten – Purdue
  • Pac 10 – USC
  • SEC – Mississippi State
  • Atlantic 10 – Temple
  • Mountain West – Utah
  • Horizon – Cleveland State

At-Large definites:

  • ACC (5): UNC, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
  • Big East (6): Louisville, UConn, Pitt, West Virginia, Marquette, Villanova
  • Big 12 (5): Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
  • Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
  • Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan,
  • SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
  • Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
  • MWC (1): BYU
  • Horizon (1): Butler

That’s 30 bids above, leaving 4 at-larges remaining for the following teams (* probables):

  • Minnesota*
  • Wisconsin*
  • Maryland*
  • Creighton
  • St. Mary’s
  • Penn State
  • Arizona
  • San Diego State
  • Auburn

Here are the resumes with a quick legend:

  • OOC = Out of Conference SOS
  • Road = Road/Neutral record
  • L12 = Last 12 games
  • Good wins = Best 3 Top 50 wins
  • Bad losses = Worst 3 Sub 100 losses
Team Record RPI SOS OOC vs 50 L12 Road
Wisconsin 18-12 (10-9) 45 16 39 4-10 7-5 6-9
Good Wins Bad Losses
Illinois @ Iowa
Ohio State
@ Michigan
Minnesota 21-10 (10-10) 42 35 187 5-8 5-7 6-7
Good Wins Bad Losses
vs Louisville
Illinois
Ohio St
Maryland 20-13 (9-10) 55 17 124 4-8 6-6 6-9
Good Wins Bad Losses
UNC Morgan St
vs Mich St @ Virginia
vs Wake Forest
Creighton 26-7 (15-5) 40 111 148 2-2 11-1 11-5
Good Wins Bad Losses
Dayton @ Wichita St
Illinois St Drake
St. Mary’s 24-6 (11-5) 48 149 98 2-3 8-4 13-5
Good Wins Bad Losses
Utah St @ Portland
vs San Diego St @ Santa Clara
Penn State 22-11 (11-9) 70 92 307 6-9 6-6 7-8
Good Wins Bad Losses
@ Michigan St @ Iowa
@ Illinois
Illinois
Arizona 19-13 (9-10) 62 34 72 6-10 7-5 5-10
Good Wins Bad Losses
Kansas @ Stanford
Washington
vs Gonzaga
San Diego St 21-9 (13-6) 35 41 102 2-6 8-4 9-7
Good Wins Bad Losses
Utah
vs BYU
Auburn 21-11 (11-7) 63 62 202 2-4 9-3 6-8
Good Wins Bad Losses
Tennessee Mercer
LSU

Everyone’s got strengths and weaknesses. It’s going to be interesting to see what the committee decides. Bottomline, NO ONE should complain about getting let out because this is a terribly weak bubble season, which is why I thought we were done a few hours ago. It’s entirely up to the committee. We’ll see what they decide.

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14 Responses to EDIT: Get yourself some headbands

  1. Peter says:

    I think everyone knows the blunder including the players. Unfortunately the 3 you mention will not admit it and will look for different reasons for not making it. Very frustrating indeed.

  2. Root like hell for Tennessee, that’s our best hope. I still think we’re one of the 5 most deserving of an at-large bid amongst those teams you listed (Dayton, Minny, and Maryland are definite at-larges)

  3. Anonymous says:

    yea i would not completely give up. it will be creighton, minnesota, dayton, and sdsu. penn state could get the bid over st. mary’s or creighton. tennessee will win.

  4. Anonymous says:

    maybe the committee will see that st. mary’s and creighton beat NOBODY!! i think new mexico and air force got in before with rpi’s in the 70s.

  5. Devon says:

    I think your math is a little off. Lunardi et al have Maryland at the top of the Last Four In, with teams like Maryland, Dayton, and Michigan off the bubble. Even with that squeeze, it’s us and all the mid-majors fighting for two spots. DON’T GIVE UP HOPE!

  6. crispinandcream says:

    I must say, I’m surprised how close we still are according to Lunardi/Palm. They both have us one of the first teams out. But they all have St. Mary’s in. They have the Patty Mills bullshit. I’ll be pretty irate if it’s Creighton and St. Mary’s that get in before us. We’ll still have one of the weakest resumes ever if we get in, though.

  7. Anonymous says:

    it sucks that st. mary’s got BLOWN OUT by the zags and then scheduled another game. bullshit. let’s be realistic. penn state and arizona are better than sdsu, creighton, and st. mary’s

  8. mike says:

    one of the guys on CBS said that penn state is in if tennessee wins. i don’t know who it was because i couldn’t see the tv. let’s hope he has some inside information.

  9. Sinbad says:

    San Diego State has an RPI of 31.
    OOC RPI is 32. 8-4 L12 games.
    Average loss is RPI 42.
    Has there ever been a team with an RPI that high left out?

    Those trumpeting for PSU, tell me again – what is THEIR RPI?

    Maryland – RPI is 51, OOC RPI is 55.
    L12 = 6-6 Average RPI loss = 40

    Creighton – RPI = 41 OOC RPI = 65 SOS 112
    L12 = 11-1 Average RPI loss = RPI 92

    PSU – RPI 68 OOC RPI = 78
    L12 = 6-6

  10. crispinandcream says:

    Dude, where are you getting your wack numbers?

    All those numbers are from Palm’s site, which are right.

  11. Sinbad says:

    Numbers are from
    http://www.bbstate.com/school.php?s=SDSU&a=sheet

    which is the same spread sheet the committee sees

    If you think 3 wins over UNLV (with 2 on UNLVS home floor, where they have beaten ALL other 29 past MWC foes) are not good WINS – you are mistaken.

  12. Sinbad says:

    EVEN if San Diego St has a RPI of 35, let me remind you – NO BCS team has been left out of the dance with a RPI of 36 or less in the last 10 years.
    Texas A & M has a very similar RPI this year.
    I see no reason to start making changes now, regardless that San Diego St is in Conference #7.
    Personally, I dont like the RPI, but it is the NCAAs evaluating tool.
    IT IS TIME TO USE IT. Clearly San Diego State leads the pack of listed teams above!

  13. crispinandcream says:

    I’d love to use BBstate’s, but his entire database is just way too big and filled with errors. Look at PSU’s non-con schedule on our selection sheet. He has us at 12-3 with a 70 ranking. That’s obviously wrong.

    UNLV’s not top 50 RPI. That’s why they’re not under the good wins. This is strictly RPI-based resumes.

    FTR, I’d trust Palm’s numbers over anyone.

  14. Sinbad says:

    Midwest bracket up.
    BAD news for the B10.
    They are getting only 6 bids is my guess.
    Wiscy in MAJOR trouble.

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